A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
