Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Significant resources is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
